The EU-US trade deal: what the commercial pause means for your cash

Since July 2025 and the Turnberry accord, French exporting companies had been navigating blind. A 15% floor tariff on their products sold to the United States, stalled negotiations, and a sword of Damocles: Donald Trump's ultimatum, set for July 4, 2026, threatening to push tariffs on European cars and trucks from 15% to 25% if ratification failed.

This morning, that scenario has stepped back. A compromise has just been announced between Brussels and Washington. The European Union found a more flexible position granting the United States until end of 2026 to reduce surcharges on steel components above 15%. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen welcomed a deal she said would "stabilise transatlantic trade relations". Formal ratification is expected to follow in the coming weeks.

For French business leaders and treasurers, this news changes the equations. Not all of them, not immediately. But enough to justify a fresh look at treasury strategy.

What just happened, point by point

To understand the implications, a brief recap of the timeline:

• July 2025 (Turnberry accord): a US-EU framework agreement sets a 15% floor tariff on most European products exported to the United States.
• February 2026: a US Supreme Court ruling temporarily annuls IEEPA-based tariffs, creating legal confusion and volatile trade conditions.
• May 2026: Trump sets a July 4 ultimatum threatening 25% tariffs on European cars. Discussions in the European Parliament stall.
• Today, May 20: a compromise is reached. The deal enters the ratification phase. Immediate escalation is avoided.

What this does not change: the 15% floor tariff remains in place. European products do not regain tariff-free access to the US market.

What this does change: short-term uncertainty recedes significantly. Companies that had built up cash reserves anticipating a tariff escalation now have a more readable horizon.

The precautionary cash trap

Since trade tensions escalated in 2025, many French exporting companies made the same call: hold more liquidity, defer investment decisions, wait and see. A rational precaution in a context of maximum uncertainty.

This behaviour has a name in economic literature: precautionary cash hoarding. It is documented at scale in Banque de France data: corporate demand deposits in France continued to rise through 2025 and into early 2026, even as interest rates offered a genuine return on properly allocated funds.

The problem: now that visibility is improving, this precautionary cash does not adjust automatically. It stays dormant, unremunerated, while inflation runs at 3% across the eurozone.

For an SME that held 300,000 euros in reserve waiting for trade clarity, that represents 9,000 euros of annual erosion. For a mid-sized company with 2 million euros in reserve: 60,000 euros.

What the trade pause now allows

The trade compromise does not erase all risks. The July 4 ultimatum has receded, but formal ratification is not yet complete. And European countermeasures remain suspended only until August 6, 2026.

In other words, visibility is better but uncertainty is not zero. The right approach is not to redeploy everything at once, but to take a clear-eyed look at the "precautionary" liquidity built up during the tension months and distinguish three levels:

Level 1: the non-negotiable cushion This is the operational treasury that must remain available regardless of circumstances. The right tool: a daily money market instrument like Smart Overnight, anchored to the ECB rate at 2.00%, available at any time, with no exit fee.

Level 2: the adjustable prudence reserve This is the liquidity held "just in case" during the period of tension. Now that visibility is improving, part of it can be redirected toward a medium-term horizon. Solutions like the Amundi EUR High Yield Corporate Bond ESG make it possible to target a return above inflation, while retaining the ability to mobilise these funds again if conditions shift.

Level 3: deferred projects These are the investments, hires, or acquisitions that were put on hold. Their reactivation is not strictly a treasury question, but a strategic decision worth reassessing in the coming weeks.

The EU is also accelerating commercial diversification

One element often underestimated in the analysis of this deal: the EU is simultaneously accelerating its strategy to diversify trade and reduce dependence on the United States.

For French companies, this means that commercial opportunities toward other geographies (South-East Asia, Africa, Latin America) will continue to develop as a European policy priority. Financing tied to this diversification, provisions for new markets, currency hedging: these are all line items worth integrating into a medium-term treasury reflection.

It is precisely in these transition contexts that the flexibility of investment instruments becomes most valuable. Being able to reallocate quickly between immediate availability and medium-term return is a concrete operational advantage.

Conclusion

The commercial pause of May 20 is not a definitive victory. It is a window. For French companies that built precautionary reserves during the months of tension, this is the right moment to take stock: how much of that cash is genuinely still needed as immediate liquidity, and how much can begin to work?

The answer is not the same for every company. But the question applies to all of them.

Sources and references

• Direction générale du Trésor, US tariffs and European position : tresor.economie.gouv.fr
• Direction générale des Douanes, tariff measures timeline : douane.gouv.fr
• Club Patrimoine, EU-US trade agreement, May 20, 2026 : clubpatrimoine.com
• Banque de France, corporate inflation expectations Q1 2026 : banque-france.fr
• ECB, monetary policy decision, April 30, 2026 : ecb.europa.eu